Urbanization and changes in farm size in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia from a geographical perspective, a review of the literature A Foresight Study of the Independent Science and Partnership Council

Foresight Studies analyze emerging issues and trends with the objective of quantifying the research challenge and the potential impact for agricultural research. The past century has entailed a relatively speaking rapid redistribution as well as growth of urban populations, with the urban population surpassing the rural one for the first time in 2008. Processes of urban growth and their implications for farming and changes in farm sizes especially are likely to be shaped both by global influences as well as more localized aspects. Spatial perspectives related to the distribution of people among urban areas of different size, the nature of production systems and how these are shaped by the proximity to urban areas are relevant in this respect. The study assesses the available empirical data on urbanization trends and changes in farm size in the context of South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa on the basis of these perspectives. Urban population growth is determined by natural growth, migration and reclassification/boundary changes. Definitions of urban areas however vary widely among countries. Comparability is further confounded by differences in the physical delimitation of urban areas as well as a general lack of census data. The case is sometimes made that African urbanization is exceptional. The source of such exceptionalism lies in two features: the unprecedented pace as well as the nature of urbanization, as it is seen to occur without the expected economic development. Recently, these particular perspectives have been taken to task: a number of studies point to the slowing of African urbanization rates or even counter-urbanization in some countries. Although Africa is one of the last continents to experience the urban transition the African rate of urbanization by historical comparison is not exceptional. African urban growth is predominantly driven by natural increase, the effect of generally high fertility rates. In the literature, wider economic and social processes provide explanations for slowing urbanization, where the downturn in urban economic fortunes and a reconstitution of rural-urban linkages is associated with stagnating urbanization rates. Falling urban living standards, rising urban poverty and a narrowing rural urban income gap explain the tapering off of rural migration streams to urban areas as seen in official statistics. While African urbanization, like elsewhere is associated with economic growth urbanization has been less successful in lowering poverty rates than in Asia. The rise of consumption cities are noted in the literature, where spillover effects are lower than in the …